More clarity should emerge after tonight’s pair of games: Brock at Western and McMaster at Windsor however there remains almost infinite possibilities reminiscent of a Week 16 NFL wild card forecast as to which teams will or will not qualify for the OUA RPI-seeded post-season.
What has a very high probability of occuring is the Top 7 seeds as follows:
Should Ryerson sweep both Carleton on Friday and then Ottawa on Saturday, Rams would likely grab #2 seed.
Spots 8 and 9 likely belong to McMaster and Windsor however there are some scenarios where Lancers finish #10 (Windsor would have to lose to Mac tonight and home to Brock on Saturday – not inconceivable – and other stuff to happen).
Beyond that there are six (6) teams vying for 3 more playoff spots. Here is one best take at what needs to happen for each of the six contending teams to clinch a post-season spot:
Guelph: – needs Lakehead to lose both home games (Waterloo and Laurier) and Gryphs need to defeat Waterloo at home on Saturday night. Also if McMaster wins both, Waterloo beats Lakehead, Lakehead beats Laurier and Gryphs beat Waterloo, Gryphs are in.
Lakehead: – sweep their final two home games (Waterloo and Laurier) and Thunderwolves are in. There are a myriad of scenarios where Lakehead splits and still makes it but Lakehead is out if Western and Waterloo sweep, York beats Queen’s and Laurier beats Lakehead.
Laurier: Golden Hawks are in under most scenarios even with a loss at Lakehead. However, if Western and Waterloo both sweep their games and Laurier loses, it appears the Hawks would be out.
Queen’s: a home win over York and Gaels are very likely in. There are also several scenarios in which Queen’s makes the playoffs even with a loss to the Lions. One scenario which would eliminate Gaels is a loss to the Lions, a win by Lakehead over Laurier and sweeps by Western and Waterloo.
Waterloo: – must win final two games (at Lakehead, at Guelph).
Western: – must win both games at home vs. Brock (Wed.) and McMaster (Saturday) and hope that Waterloo does not win both of their games. Under all scenarios I tried, sweeps by both Waterloo and the Mustangs put Warriors at #12 and Mustangs at #13.
We will look to update this after tonight’s games.
8 PM ET Brock at Western: These teams meet for the one and only time this season with Badgers riding an 8 game winning streak and the young Mustangs turning it up – especially defensively – and getting big performances out of their emerging tandem at guard led by 6’1″ Omar Shiddo (39 points at Laurier last weekend) and 6’1″ Eriq Jenkins. Western has won 3 of their last 4 with all 3 wins on the road. Brock is firmly in #4 seed.
8 PM ET McMaster at Windsor: Another big-time former OUA West rivalry that meets for the first time this season after clashing the past two seasons in the playoffs with a Wilson Cup Final 4 berth on the line – recall Lancers won both at Burridge Gym. RPI is lining up for another Lancer/Marauder playoff battle however the two teams meet tonight first. Both teams have for all intents and purposes clinched playoff spots (tried several scenarios and worst case Windsor can finish #10). 6’3″ Mitch Farrell missed Lancers loss at Waterloo this past Saturday afternoon with a recurrence of an ankle injury that has plagued him throughout his career.